Retail Day
Retail Week, today
Convenience is convenient
I imagine you’re as bored as I am with the national media’s obsession with the weather, but there’s no doubt it’s causing real problems for retailers. From what we can tell discretionary shopping trips - ie pretty much anything non-food - are being shelved meaning this month will be terrible for sales, while the food sector in particular has had to grapple with nightmarish and expensive problems in the supply chain.
The problem is that the weather is unpredictable, so you might have one DC or supplier which is completely snowbound but your rival might have another down the road which is able to operate normally. This is the sort of situation where the skill of logistics teams come into their own - no matter how sophisticated your supply chain software is dealing with this sort of disruption requires a manual touch - but whatever happens it’s going to work out expensive.
I had breakfast with a leading figure in the grocery retail world on Friday and he said that the happiest man in retail at the moment would be Co-op boss Peter Marks. He always seems pretty happy with things generally, but convenience stores have been doing a roaring trade as people struggle to get their cars out, and it might be a good opportunity for shoppers to rediscover their local Co-op or Somerfield.
The Co-op had a very respectable Christmas, it announced today, with like for likes up 5%, a very decent performance given the inevitable disruption of the integration of Somerfield. No doubt it was helped by the extreme pre-Christmas weather too. I’ve always been a sceptic about the takeover, but many more sets of results like this and I might have to end up eating my words.
on Jan 11th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
Hi Tim - I think it’s great for local stores to get a boost and as you say, perhaps retain some custom as people find out why they are called convenience stores!
Footfall is down in my stores but people are resolute about buying birdfood for the garden so when they can/do get to our offer, the ATV is decent as is the propensity to purchase.
on Jan 12th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
Tim, are you going to have a punt at the January LFLs for Retail, factoring in the weather disruption and lost trade this year?
Then we can see if you win a speedboat or your bus fare home, in a Bullseye sort of a fashion in a couple or three weeks’ time.
I reckon it might actually fall out about level, with the disrupted trade only taking out any growth that might otherwise have shown a plus.
on Jan 13th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
I think level would be a great result Rich, but at risk of only getting my BFH and Bullseye tankard, I’m going to go for -2.
Anyone else want to take a step up to the oche?
on Jan 13th, 2010 at 10:27 pm
Come on audience, would you gamble?
Tim, suspect you will be closer than I am.